On September 11, 2025, the European Central Bank (ECB) opted to keep its key deposit facility rate at 2.00%, maintaining the rate for a second straight meeting. The main refinancing rate remains at 2.15%, and the marginal lending facility rate is unchanged at 2.40%. 

What’s driving the decision

Several factors are influencing the ECB’s cautious stance:

• Inflation has eased and is now closer to the ECB’s target of ~2%. 

• The eurozone economy, though not booming, is showing modest resilience, with signs that the slowdown has not been as severe as some feared. 

• Trade policy uncertainties, especially tariffs between the EU and the US, remain a risk that the ECB is watching closely. These could complicate inflation and growth outlooks. 

What the ECB signals for the future

• The bank has made clear it will follow a data‐dependent, meeting‐by‐meeting approach. Any move (either up or down) will depend on how inflation, growth, employment, and external risks evolve. 

• Economists see a high bar for further rate cuts, meaning that unless there is a clear weakening in growth/inflation or additional shocks, rates may remain at current levels for some time. 

Implications

• For businesses and consumers, stable borrowing costs mean less uncertainty in financing and investment decisions, for now.

• If trade tensions or external shocks intensify, pressure could build on the ECB to adjust its policy.

• Markets may start to factor in the possibility of one more cut before the end of the year, though such expectations are tentative and conditional.