Natural gas prices across Europe have spiked dramatically in early March 2026, as escalating conflict in the Middle East rattles international energy markets. The benchmark Dutch TTF natural gas futures surged by over 40% on March 3, reaching levels above €60 per megawatt-hour, a surge not seen in recent years, reflecting acute concerns about physical supply bottlenecks and rising geopolitical risk. 

The sharp price move follows a series of disruptive events connected to the ongoing 2026 Strait of Hormuz crisis, in which maritime traffic through this crucial chokepoint, responsible for moving a substantial share of global liquefied natural gas (LNG), has fallen dramatically. Attacks on energy infrastructure in Qatar have led to the temporary suspension of LNG production at key facilities, further tightening the global supply balance. 

Analysts from major financial institutions have cautioned that if exports through Hormuz remain impaired for a month or more, European gas prices could exceed twice their pre-conflict levels. Such a scenario would intensify competition for LNG cargoes from other regions and embed a persistent geopolitical risk premium into forward markets. 

This volatility in energy markets comes at a time when European inflation data already show pressures above expectations, partly due to rising fuel costs. The surge in gas prices adds complexity to central bank policymaking as governments and consumers grapple with higher energy bills and potential spill-over into broader price dynamics.